K = 1 + (t / 7.5)
we assume (i) that time is measured in the same units (months in the example you give) and (ii) that the average length of an untreated episode from become a cases to spontaneous cure or death is 7.5 months. That last assumption is based on limited data and some guesswork.
If the period of CMAM operation is 6 months then you would have:
K = 1 + (6 / 7.5)
K = 1.8
The key to understanding 'K' is ...
We know we have to treat prevalent cases and we can have some idea of prevalent cases from survey data. There will also be new (incident) cases arising. we will want to treat these too. We want to treat :
cases to treat = prevalent cases + incident cases
We do not usually have incidence data (a SMART survey (e.g.) yields a prevalence rather than an incidence). We can estimate incidence from prevalence if we have some idea of the duration of an untreated episode. This is (under certain assumptions):
incidence = prevalence * (period / duration)
So we want to treat :
cases to treat = prevalence + prevalence * (period / duration)
This can be expressed as:
cases to treat = prevalence * (1 + period / duration)
The last part of that is our 'K'.
I hope this helps.Answered:
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10 years ago
SFP caseload + (OTP Caseload * OTP Cure rate)
were 'SFP caseload' and 'OTP caseloa'd are calculated from different "N * P * K * C" calculations and 'OTP cure rate' is taken from routine program monitoring statistics might work. You can model these type of questions quite simple simply using a spreadsheet. BTW ... Abu Ahammad Abdullah's response (above) is similar to this and assumes a 75% cure rate (this is the SPHERE minimum standard for OTP cure rate).
WRT "How do u calculate the caseload of BSFP?" ... This can be done in the same way. Don't assume prevalence to be 5%. Use whatever prevalence / disease calendar / food security data you have to make a good guess at prevalence. We can get confused by terms used to describe SFP programs. If by "BSFP" you mean "blanket" SFP and by "blanket" you mean "everyone" (or "everyone 659 months and all PLWs") then your caseload is everyone (corrected for expected coverage). Typically this will be all children 659 months and all PLWs.Answered:
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10 years agoBlanket SFPs target a food supplement to all members of a specified at risk group , ... All individuals in a specific group are registered for the blanket SFP. (Module 12 SFP Technical Notes)and:
Blanket SFPs attempt to prevent a deterioration of the nutritional status of all individuals in a predefined vulnerable group ... (Blanket Supplementary Feeding Program Guidance). These are, in fact, targeted programs. I will (first) assume that you are referring to this type of program. The caseload calculation is:
N * P * K * C
The prevalence term 'P' is simple a proportion and correspond to the proportion meeting the targeting criteria. This might be (e.g.) the proportion of households with a MAM child, the proportion of households with a earth floor, &c. depending on your targeting criteria. You would only base this on food security data if you were targeting using food security criteria. Mostly you will use a proxy criteria such as "flooring type" on the basis that poor housing and food insecurity tend to go together. In this example, the term 'P' will be the proportion of hosueholds meeting your proxy criteria.
The prevalence to incidence correction term 'K' might be as used above (e.g. K = t / 7.5) or it might be absent.
The coverage term 'C' is, typically, small for SFPs.
If you are referring to a true "blanket" programs then the caseload calculation simplified to:
N * C
I hope this helps.Answered:
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10 years agoThe U5 population is uniformly distributed by age.
The U5 population is about 20% of the total population.Under these assumptions we have:
N = Total Population * 0.20 * 18 / 60
N = Total Population * 0.06
You can drop 'P' or have P = 1 (the same thing). You will have an "incidence" but this will usually be balanced by older children leaving the cohort as younger children join the cohort so 'K' can be ignored or set to K = 1. Your caseload is then:
Caseload = N * C
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10 years agoI am trying to calculate case load of a MAM programme. The total population of the area is 1,008,283; prevalence of MAM is 9%; incidence is 2.6%; coverage of the programme is 50%? Kindly help me calculate case laod for 6 months because am getting some figure below what our programme reached 6 months back. Thanks
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7 years agoI would advise that you go by your project/programme experience based on the numbers you were able to reach last time you implemented the MAM program .Then work very hard to increase outreach and community mobilization so that you reach as many more children as much as feasible to have a higher coverage than 50%.
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7 years agoPlease can you advise on the formula and how to calculate the answer to this exam question? The exam has already passed but I would like to know it for my experience and my knowledge.
3. According to the SMART Survey results, global acute malnutrition (GAM) is 6.8% and SAM prevalence is 0.9 %. The results of a coverage survey indicated a low coverage of 20% in the ongoing program. In 2012, the number of facilities providing treatment of SAM services increased from to 227 Facilities to 427, whereas national wide the facilities are 1200. In 2013, a total of 32,000 children were admitted to the program with 32,824 cartons of RUTF distributed and several reports of stock outs due to insufficient supplies. The country office is concerned with the higher than expected caseload and RUTF consumption. (20 marks).
a. What is the expected SAM caseload? Using the prevalence and the expected SAM caseload estimated, please calculate the RUTF needed for treatment and explain your calculation.
b. What could be the underlying causes for the high consumption of RUTF? What strategies would you propose to the country office to regulate the consumption of RUTF inline with the protocol, international standards and expected caseload based on SAM prevalence
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6 years agoHello colleagues,
Any one may help me with any technical guidance in calculating SAM/MAM and PLW caseload per month and per year.
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4 years agoYes, there are a number of tools:
 New Incident Cases: The population burden (B) consists of both prevalent cases and new (incident) cases that are expected to occur in the program area over a given planning period. The burden (B) =Estimated number of prevalent cases + Expected number of incident cases. The expected number of incident cases can be estimated using: Expected number of incident cases = NPK; where K is a correction factor[1] calculated as:
K=
Duration of planning period
Average duration of a disease episode
This allows the population burden (B) to be estimated:

 B= Estimated number of prevalent cases +Expected number of incident cases
 B= NP+ NPK
 B = NP (1+K)
For a year incidence correction factor is usually taken as 2.6 for SAM (note: this 2.6 is derived from the Garenne et al. 2009[1] paper outlining that a common estimate of the average duration of an untreated SAM episode is 7.5 months. Therefore 12 months / 7.5 = 1.6. The full SAM burden is calculated as per the following: population 659m x [prevalence + (prevalence x incidence)]; where the incidence is 1.6, the calculation becomes: population 659m x [prevalence + (prevalence x 1.6)] which can be simplified to population 659m x prevalence x 2.6. This is the formulation used in this sheet.)
[1] Garenne, Michel, Douladel Willie, Bernard Maire, Olivier Fontaine, Roger Eeckels, André Briend, and Jan Van den Broeck. “Incidence and Duration of Severe Wasting in Two African Populations.” Public Health Nutrition 12, no. 11 (November 2009): 1974–82. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1368980009004972.
See tool here:
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