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Post a reply: Expert opinion on excess death count.

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Hello experts in the house ,

I was playing with some numbers today and I came up with two different conclusion based on two different approaches that left me wondering which one is the right way to go. This is what the situations are:

I have two time periods t1 and t2 with crude death rate as 0.021 and 0.022 respectively, with a population of 50000 and 53000 at time point t1 and t2.

First approach:
I computed excess death as 0.021*50000 - 0.022*53000 = -116 which means more people died at time t2.

Second approach:
Using the current population at time point 2
(0.021-0.022)*53000 = - 53 that is 53 excess death.

My confusion at this point is how best to compute the excess death ? Scenario 1 or 2?

NB: Any suggestion on good book to read on fundamentals?advanced methods of mortality estimates. I am really interested in this topic more especially in humanitarian settings and would like to learn more.

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