# Beneficiary calculation for multiple years

This question was posted the Management of wasting/acute malnutrition forum area and has 3 replies.

### Sanne Bakker

Nutrition Officer

Normal user

19 Aug 2014, 10:00

**expected case load for the coming 5 years**? Does the correction factor become K = Prevalence +incidence factor above=1 + {1 x(60months/7.5months)} = 9? How can we take into account the expected decrease in MAM prevalence? 3 extra challenges for this case load estimation is that i) we would need the annual caseload and that ii) we might follow a phase-wise implementation and therefore the under 5 population changes per year and iii) we would like to factor in the population growth rate. Thanks in advance for any advice!

### Mark Myatt

Consultant Epidemiologist

Frequent user

19 Aug 2014, 11:01

### NDONITA Zola

Ministère de la santé publique TCHAD

Normal user

21 Jun 2019, 12:44

Hello Mark I work in an NGO and I am faced with the same problem as that expressed by my predecessor on the calculation of caseload of children from 6 to 59 months for a project of a duration of 5 taking into account the reduction of cases of acute malnutrition, the rate of growth of the population. Could you enlighten me more? I did not understand your answer, or rather it seems complicated to me. An example?

### Mark Myatt

Consultant Epidemiologist

Frequent user

24 Jun 2019, 10:26

Zola,

We start with the base calculation:

` case-load = NPCK`

where N is the population, P is prevalence, C is coverage, and K is a fudge factor. We can implement this in a simple spreadsheet.

I have put an example together here.

We know that population will change over time by growth (i.e. deaths - births) and migration (exits - entries) in excess of normal growth. This needs to be accounted for. This is done in columns, B, C, and D of the example spreadsheet.

Prevalence will change. You can make informed guesses based on past results of (e.g.) SMART surveys and the example expected trend. This is in column F of the example spreadsheet.

Coverage may start low and increase over time. I have done this in G of the example spreadsheet.

Estimated case-load is calculated in column H of the example spreadsheet.

This is a simple model but it allows you to do what-if type simulations. For example, you may want to see what might happen if the expected decrease in prevalence did not occur.

It is usually a good idea to create (at least) best case, expected case, and worst case scenarios.

I hope this is of some use.

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