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Beneficiary calculation for multiple years

This question was posted the Prevention and treatment of moderate acute malnutrition forum area and has 1 replies. You can also reply via email – be sure to leave the subject unchanged.

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Sanne Bakker

Nutrition Officer

Normal user

19 Aug 2014, 10:00

Dear Nutrition colleagues,

I am looking for guidance regarding the following:
We are implementing a targeted supplementary feeding programme for the treatment of MAM which includes a nutrition BCC component for programme beneficiaries, caretakers at the community at large.
How can you calculate the expected case load for the coming 5 years?
Does the correction factor become K = Prevalence +incidence factor above=1 + {1 x(60months/7.5months)} = 9? How can we take into account the expected decrease in MAM prevalence?
3 extra challenges for this case load estimation is that i) we would need the annual caseload and that ii) we might follow a phase-wise implementation and therefore the under 5 population changes per year and iii) we would like to factor in the population growth rate.
Thanks in advance for any advice!

Mark Myatt

Frequent user

19 Aug 2014, 11:01

I think you could tackle this on a phase-by-phase basis in a spreadsheet. That way you can specify phase specific changes in population, coverage, and prevalence using a system of simple equations which can then be summed over years and over the program duration. The process will be a lot like working out an expected program budget or a business plan. This should give you what you want.

Once you get a working model you should check the maths and the assumptions and then do a sensitivity analysis so you get some idea of the uncertainty of the results (e.g. what would happen if my coverage changed at a different rate). I usually take a sampling-base approach to sensitivity analysis this but there are other methods.

I hope this is of some use.

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