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Beneficiary calculation for multiple years

This question was posted the Prevention and treatment of moderate acute malnutrition forum area and has 1 replies. You can also reply via email – be sure to leave the subject unchanged.

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Sanne Bakker

Nutrition Officer

Normal user

19 Aug 2014, 10:00

Dear Nutrition colleagues,

I am looking for guidance regarding the following:
We are implementing a targeted supplementary feeding programme for the treatment of MAM which includes a nutrition BCC component for programme beneficiaries, caretakers at the community at large.
How can you calculate the expected case load for the coming 5 years?
Does the correction factor become K = Prevalence +incidence factor above=1 + {1 x(60months/7.5months)} = 9? How can we take into account the expected decrease in MAM prevalence?
3 extra challenges for this case load estimation is that i) we would need the annual caseload and that ii) we might follow a phase-wise implementation and therefore the under 5 population changes per year and iii) we would like to factor in the population growth rate.
Thanks in advance for any advice!

Mark Myatt

Consultant Epideomiologist

Frequent user

19 Aug 2014, 11:01

I think you could tackle this on a phase-by-phase basis in a spreadsheet. That way you can specify phase specific changes in population, coverage, and prevalence using a system of simple equations which can then be summed over years and over the program duration. The process will be a lot like working out an expected program budget or a business plan. This should give you what you want.

Once you get a working model you should check the maths and the assumptions and then do a sensitivity analysis so you get some idea of the uncertainty of the results (e.g. what would happen if my coverage changed at a different rate). I usually take a sampling-base approach to sensitivity analysis this but there are other methods.

I hope this is of some use.

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