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Estimating caseload for Targeted Suplementary Fedding programme (TSFP)

This question was posted the Prevention and treatment of moderate acute malnutrition forum area and has 5 replies. You can also reply via email – be sure to leave the subject unchanged.

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Anonymous 81

Public Health Nutritionist

Normal user

25 Apr 2010, 18:52

For estimating SAM caseload, detailed explanation was given by André Briend with a formula as follow: expected caseload of SAM over 12 month = Prevalence + prevalence *1.6.

Can we use this formula for caseload estimation of targeted SFP (<5 and PLW)?


Frequent user

27 Apr 2010, 08:52

The formula you quote for estimation of the number of SAM patient is based on one study and requires confirmation. The correct formula is incidence = prevalence x 1.6. This formula is based on the paper: Garenne M, Willie D, Maire B, Fontaine O, Eeckels R, Briend A, Van den Broeck J. Incidence and duration of severe wasting in two African populations. Public Health Nutr. 2009 Nov;12(11):1974-82 The issue of estimating the size of SFP was discussed at a recent meeting in WHO on management of MAM (see: ). The data which were used to estimate how to convert prevalence into prevalence for SAM were reanalysed for MAM and presented at this meeting. This analysis suggested that the same conversion coefficient may apply. The assumptions behind these calculations however are uncertain and during the discussion, limits of this approach were highlighted. The difficulty of estimating programme size (which is related to incidence) based on prevalence surveys is well acknowledged, both for SAM and MAM. This is an area that the HNTS group at WHO is currently exploring. A mail has been sent to NGO to ask them to share data in order to make progress in this area. You are very much welcome to help in this initiative and to contact HNTS to know more about it. Information about HNTS is available at:

Anonymous 81

Public Health Nutritionist

Normal user

27 Apr 2010, 21:00

Thank you very much for your usual response.
The formula i mentioned is based on what you exactly write on October 2009 for this forum. Any ways both are the same. caseload = Prevalence + incidence where incidence = prevalence*1.6 . meaning caseload = prevalence + (prevalence*1.6).

Anonymous 390

Normal user

28 Apr 2010, 13:21

There seems to be a wide gap between the MUAC and WFH incidence in the Garenne M., Willie D. et al. study, particularly in the Senegal cohort. It is clearly said that there is a need for more study. The the determinants in the two studied sites (DRC and Senegal) may not represent the situation in the horn of Africa for example. My question is, can we estimate 1 year caseload for SAM with the evidence at hand?

With multiple determinants on play, is it really plausible to estimate one year case load for severe malnutrition?

Biram Ndiaye

Nutrition Specialist, UNICEF

Normal user

16 May 2010, 11:11

This way of estimating supply need will lead to an overestimation of needs in a country. Considering the expiry date of RUTF, we need to be more cautious with these formulas. Also, it is unrealistic to identify all SAM children in a country, therefore the best way is to calculate the supply needed based on historic admission rate or service capacities + x% annual coverage increase.

Rogers Wanyama

Emergency Nutrition Specialist

Normal user

13 Aug 2011, 13:25

Hi Kiross

Have a look at the link below :

I think the Niger study suggests a shorter duration of untreated SAM.


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