Hi Dr. Oloyede,
There is a quick way way to roughly estimate deaths averted that can be derived from routine data. However, it is important to note that the method is based on several assumptions, based on MUAC only, assumes negligible relapse rate and may not be applicable to your specific context or data set.
Case finding and community mobilisation are still overlooked or given low priority in many CMAM programmes. Whatever method of calculation is used, the most important take-away message must be that vigorous case finding and early admission to treatment has a big effect on reducing mortality.
Research from 1986 to 1994 in various contexts (Briend & Zimicki, 1986; Briend, 1987; Vella et al, 1994) indicates, for example that the mortality rate for untreated SAM at a MUAC of 110mm varies between 10.5% and 21.1% (mean = 17.325%) of cases per year. Based on these estimates we can approximate the number of deaths averted for any given year in the CMAM programme.
Deaths averted = Number of admissions in one year x 17.325% x Cure Rate
E.g. For 20,000 admissions in one year with a 70% cure rate
Deaths averted = 20,000 x 0.17325 x 0.7
SAM deaths averted in one year = 2425 (Range: 1,470 – 2954)
It is probable that a significant proportion of non-death negative outcomes also survive but these aren't included in this quick estimate above. Therefore interpret the result of this quick calculation very cautiously.
A fuller discussion of estimating lives saved, the various assumptions and objections to the method that need to be considered / accounted for can be found here:
https://www.ennonline.net/fex/50/deathsavertedcmamnigeria
I hope this helps,
Paul